How to spot the 2017 truck trend
The 2017 truck trends trend may seem to be a one-year phenomenon, but it’s a growing trend.
A recent study by the International Transport Research Institute (ITRI) found that the truck market is growing at a rate of nearly 7 per cent per year, with the average year-on-year growth rate of 6.7 per cent.
“Truck demand is expected to reach a new peak in 2019,” said ITRI president and chief executive officer Robert A. Cramer in a statement.
“It will be a challenge for companies and governments to keep up.”
Cramer’s forecast is for the truck demand to increase by about 7.7 to 9 per cent a year for the next decade, with a growth rate in the 2020s of 7 per and a peak in 2025 of 11 per cent for a total of 20 per cent annual growth.
While Cramer doesn’t forecast a peak truck demand in 2019, he expects that truck demand will remain stable at about 7 per year for a decade.
The ITRI predicts the truck growth rate to plateau in 2020 at around 6 per cent, then increase slightly in 2025 to 7 per, and then decline by 10 per cent to 7.5 per cent in 2030.
The forecast is similar to one issued by BMO Capital Markets analyst Scott McInerney last week, which also forecasts that the demand for trucks will stabilize around 6.5 to 7 percent annually by 2020, with an average growth rate for the coming decade of about 7 percent per year.
“While it may be tempting to look at 2019 as a year to celebrate with the new Ford F-150 pickup truck, this is not a good time to be driving,” said McInnerney.
“A few years ago, the trucking industry was in its early years and there was little opportunity to drive the new truck.
Now it’s much more crowded, more efficient, and there is an increasing need for longer-haul trucks.”
With a projected $1.2-billion investment in trucks in 2021, the International Trade Association of Canada (ITCA) expects to see $3.3 billion of exports of trucks in Canada, a 25 per cent increase from 2020.
The trucking sector also accounts for approximately half of the total global trade in trucks.
With the expected $1 billion investment in the sector, Canada is expected have about one-third of the world’s trucks by 2023.
“With the potential of a growing global truck market, it is not surprising that the global trucking market will grow rapidly in the coming years,” said Justin Haines, senior vice-president of industry relations at the ITCA.
“However, there are some areas of concern as trucking demand accelerates and it becomes more difficult to compete on the global level.”
A new report from the National Association of State Highway Officials (NASHA) predicts that by 2035, the global freight freight market will account for less than a quarter of the global total of 2.4 billion vehicles and trucks.
The NASHA report also predicts that truck traffic will continue to increase, although it notes that it is still forecasted to grow by just under 6 per of a vehicle, not 5 per of one.
The global truck traffic has seen growth rates of around 15 per cent annually over the past five years, according to NASHA.
“We expect the global supply of truck capacity will remain robust in the medium term, driven by the continued growth of the U.S. and China markets,” said Hain.
“But the global market is set to become increasingly fragmented as vehicle sizes increase, with fewer drivers, fewer logistics companies, and fewer routes and destinations.
In addition, the increasing reliance on off-highway vehicles to meet the growing number of freight loads will further limit the availability of trucks and reduce truck volume.”
With its new technology, the Canadian trucking business is moving from a niche market to a global one.
But there are risks ahead, as the growth of truck traffic slows.
“The global truck trade has been growing rapidly and, with it, the number of truckers in the U, UK, and France,” said Cramer.
“By 2035 there will be more trucks than people.
The trucks will be able to handle more freight and will therefore increase demand for drivers.”
While some of the growth in truck traffic is due to the introduction of the Ford F150 pickup, the other drivers of the market are the same as in the past.
“There are some drivers who are retiring, and others are being replaced by a mix of drivers from India, China, and Brazil,” said Gary R. Biester, chief economist for the UBS Global Trucking Research Group.
When we compare the UAW and the Ford trucks, there is a lot of overlap, and many of